Spillovers, feedback and impreciseion

A beautiful overview by Chris Dillow of the difficulties of forecasting has this nugget.

 "Of course, the idea of keeping up with the Joneses is an old one. But until recently, it's been hard to find proper evidence for it: if we see a group of neighbours spending more, how can we tell whether some are copying others or simply that the neighbourhood generally has enjoyed some good fortune? Perhaps the neatest evidence here comes from a study of the effects of the Dutch postcode lottery. Every week, this selects a postcode at random and gives a BMW to everyone in it who bought a ticket. Researchers have found that the neighbours of winners who didn't win themselves are significantly more likely to buy a new car. This is a clean sign of a network effect between consumers."

The whole article has an excellent overview and great links.

'via Blog this'

Data for financial bubbles

Here is an indicator from Phillips,Wu and Yu to determine bubbles.

https://mercury.smu.edu.sg/rsrchpubupload/22550/04-2013.pdf2

There is a need for data to test bubbles.  This can come from Reinhart and Rogoff or Ahamed.

Financial booms and busts were, and continue to be, a feature of the economic landscape. These bubbles
and crises seem to be deep-rooted in human nature and inherent to the capitalist system. By one count there
have been 60 different crises since the 17th century.

Ahamed (2009).

'via Blog this'

Coase's Penguin

The theory of the firm explains why firms exist and provides a framework for analysing where the boundaries of the firm will lie.  In itself this can be interesting as this is the arena to discuss the benefits of mergers or disposals or outsourcing.  See John Naughton at the Guardian for an introduction.

However, with Coase's Penguin:, Yochai Benkler suggests that this can also explain a new method of producign goods and services. 

"In this paper I explain that while free software is highly visible, it is in fact only one example of a much broader social-economic phenomenon. I suggest that we are seeing is the broad and deep emergence of a new, third mode of production in the digitally networked environment. I call this mode "commons-based peer-production," to distinguish it from the property- and contract-based models of firms and markets. Its central characteristic is that groups of individuals successfully collaborate on large-scale projects following a diverse cluster of motivational drives and social signals, rather than either market prices or managerial commands."

Paper also available from this page. '

Nokia revisited

Following up the earlier post, Surowiecki looks at what went wrong.  Where Nokia Went Wrong : The New Yorker:  Inability to take risk?

" Diverting a lot of resources into a high-end, low-volume business (which is what the touch-screen smartphone business was in 2007) would have looked risky. In that sense, Nokia’s failure resulted at least in part from an institutional reluctance to transition into a new era"

A new company can take a chance on a new area with less risk because you do not add on losing what you already have to the inherent uncertainty of any such business decision.  Breaking into the market involves taking risk.  There were similar potential benefits and much fewer costs for Apple.

IS-LM and bank lending

An old one but a golden look at IS-LM from Brad DeLong

S(Y - T) = BL(i; π, ρ)

with rho the parameter for the risk premium in the original. However, this could also be risk aversion and therefore bank lending (BL) could fail to expand to match savings S or may expand beyond savings in a boom.

The point made here is that the government borrowing (via bond market) increases the quality of borrowing.

Decline and fall

Alongside some criticism of the Microsoft acquisition of Nokia and a view of the increase in Microsoft employees, Felix Salmon quotes The New York Times. 

 "Nokia’s fall has been most spectacular in Asia, a region that its phones once dominated. As recently as 2010, the company had a 64 percent share of the smartphone market in China, according to Canalys, a research firm. By the first half of this year, that had plunged to 1 percent"

The potential for large companies to disappear is much greater than is ever envisaged.  Remember that Nikia and Microsoft were one the Apple and Google of the day.  QZ has a overview of some of the things that Microsoft is said to have done as a word of warning for Google.

Bayesian vs. Frequentist in PracticeEran Raviv

Bayesian vs. Frequentist in PracticeEran Raviv: "I apply both Bootstrap and Bayesian inference in the following toy example and push forward the point that (Oy vey..) the choice between the two approached does not matter much."

'via Blog this'

Pricing of skew risk

Todd Mitton and Keith Vorkink suggest that diversified firms have to offer higher expected returns to compensate for the lack of positive skew.  This is tied to the well known phenomenon of individuals buying lotteries with a small chance of making large gains. 

In this paper, we seek to add to our understanding of why firms with diversification
discounts have higher expected returns. We consider an explanation based on the return
distributions of the stocks of diversified firms relative to single-segment firms. Specifically,
we consider whether investors pay a premium for single-segment firms because the return
distributions of single-segment firms have higher upside potential (positive skewness) than do
the return distributions of diversified firms. If investors have a preference for stocks with
positive skewness, then stocks of diversified firms may have to offer higher returns in order to
compensate investors for a lack of upside potential.

The assumption that investors would place a premium on stocks with greater skewness
exposure is grounded in theory. Arditti (1967) and Scott and Horvath (1980) demonstrate
that investors with typical preferences demonstrate a preference for positive skewness in return
distributions. Kraus and Litzenberger (1976) and Harvey and Siddique (2000) build on these
results to develop asset pricing relationships in a representative agent framework, finding that
an asset’s coskewness with the market portfolio should be priced. Other research shows that
even idiosyncratic skewness may be a priced component of stock returns. Barberis and Huang
(2005) show that when investors have preferences based on cumulative prospect theory, stocks with greater idiosyncratic skewness may command a pricing premium. Mitton and Vorkink (2006), in a model incorporating heterogeneous investor preference for skewness, also predict a pricing premium for stocks with idiosyncratic skewness. The optimal expectations model of Brunnermeier and Parker (2005) also produces qualitatively similar asset pricing implications for skewness as Barberis and Huang (2005) and Mitton and Vorkink (2006).

This seems to be about positive skew.  What does this mean for negative skew.  The obvious implication would be that investors would be more cautious about investments that have a negative skew. However, work on the carry trade suggests that they do not fully take notice of this risk.  Is this a case where risk is considered in an asymmetric fashion?  Could it be considered something akin or equivalent to Prospect Theory. 

Milton, T., & K. Vorkink, 2010, 'Why do firms with diversification discounts have higher expected returns?', Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, 45 (6), pp. 1367-1390

The Man Who Invented Modern Probability - Issue 4: The Unlikely - Nautilus

The Man Who Invented Modern Probability - Issue 4: The Unlikely - Nautilus: "Kolmogorov drew analogies between probability and measure, resulting in five axioms, now usually formulated in six statements, that made probability a respectable part of mathematical analysis. The most basic notion of Kolmogorov’s theory was the “elementary event,” the outcome of a single experiment, like tossing a coin. All elementary events formed a “sample space,” the set of all possible outcomes. For lightning strikes in Massachusetts, for example, the sample space would consist of all the points in the state where lightning could hit. A random event was defined as a “measurable set” in a sample space, and the probability of a random event as the “measure” of this set. For example, the probability that lightning would hit Boston would depend only on the area (“measure”) of this city. Two events occurring simultaneously could be represented by the intersection of their measures; conditional probabilities by dividing measures; and the probability that one of two incompatible events would occur by adding measures (that is, the probability that either Boston or Cambridge would be hit by lightning equals the sum of their areas)."

'via Blog this'

Knowledge, uncertainty and Bayesian priors

A fantastic journey from a discussion of job insecurity through the basis of knowledge and back to how to estimate the probability of being sacked.  Not Quite Noahpinion: Perceiving Job Insecurity:

"Keynes was one of many to critique this principle. His views on probability and uncertainty remain controversial, as does the Principle of Insufficient Reason. There is actually quite a large body of literature in statistics concerning "noninformative priors" that continues to study the fascinating and controversial issue of how to represent ignorance. There are also subfields of behavioral economics that study how people treat probability, particularly when it comes to low-probability events (like job loss, usually)."

Excellent links provided.

'via Blog this'

Noahpinion: A healthy side effect of High Frequency Trading?

Lovely overview of HFT,

Noahpinion: A healthy side effect of High Frequency Trading?: "High Frequency Trading is nearly universally reviled. The Tournament Externality is just too obvious; it yields no social value to bring a piece of information to the market 1 millisecond before it would otherwise have arrived, but people are apparently spending lots of money in an effort to do so. It can't be efficient to commit our best and brightest minds to beating each other to the punch by 1 millisecond. Because of this, many have suggested a small Tobin Tax to curb HFT. Others have suggested"

'via Blog this'

Luck

Interesting case. Does the demise of Nintendo suggest that the previous success was just luck.  They had two good products:  Nintendo DS and wii?   The alternative is changing clans.  It would add the gamecube and say that it had an era and some fundamental change allowed Microsoft to take over.

"Iwata expects sales of 3DS and Wii U hardware to increase, and promises return to "Nintendo-like profits"; lines up new Nintendo Direct web session to reveal fresh game details"

Link,

Calendar-based Sector Strategy | Systematic Investor

EMH in action.

Calendar-based Sector Strategy | Systematic Investor: "I recently came across the Kaeppel’s Sector Seasonality Strategy which is described in Kaeppel’s Corner: Sector Seasonality and updated in Kaeppel’s Corner: Get Me Back, Clarence."

It depends on the interpretation. This is how I interpret it.

Productivity and inequality

At some point the gap between inequality and productivity must make people move between the two spaces to reduce the gap.  How does that not happen?

There are barriers, such as the social capital of being from a different class, though these can be overcome after a certain point and return reach an extreme level; there is ignorance of the ability or requirements that are necessary to move; there are other barriers such as legal and educational constraints.

What determines this gap?  It is clearly larger in the US than in Germany or some Scandinavian countries.  Do these constraints have other effects?

'via Blog this'

Michael Lewis: Did Goldman Sachs Overstep in Criminally Charging Its Ex-Programmer? | Vanity Fair

Michael Lewis: Did Goldman Sachs Overstep in Criminally Charging Its Ex-Programmer?
A month after ace programmer Sergey Aleynikov left Goldman Sachs, he was arrested. Exactly what he’d done neither the F.B.I., which interrogated him, nor the jury, which convicted him a year later, seemed to understand. But Goldman had accused him of stealing computer code, and the 41-year-old father of three was sentenced to eight years in federal prison. Investigating Aleynikov’s case, Michael Lewis holds a second trial."

'via Blog this'

Kickstarter

An idea for an assignment in finance.  Look for a project on Kickstarter.  Investigate the potential returns and risk.  Make an assessment of the sort of funding that you would be prepared to make and the additional information that you would like.  This can begin as a sort of Dragon's private equity financing but can be expanded to a discussion of different options and the relative merits of these options.

Smith and Speculation

In the middle of a debate about Smith, Brad DeLong quotes the Theory of Moral Sentiments:

"Let us suppose that the great empire of China, with all its myriads of inhabitants, was suddenly swallowed up by an earthquake, and let us consider how a man of humanity in Europe, who had no sort of connexion with that part of the world, would be affected upon receiving intelligence of this dreadful calamity. He would, I imagine, first of all, express very strongly his sorrow for the misfortune of that unhappy people, he would make many melancholy reflections upon the precariousness of human life, and the vanity of all the labours of man, which could thus be annihilated in a moment. He would too, perhaps, if he was a man of speculation, enter into many reasonings concerning the effects which this disaster might produce upon the commerce of Europe, and the trade and business of the world in general."

It seems to suggest speculation.  What is the effect of this on trade?  Buy spice and silk, sell whiskey and shortbread.

Gladwell on Taleb

Very Interesting.  Gladwell has a profile of Tlaeb. The hedge fund that buys out of the money options. There is a good link to Kahneman and Tversky.

 "Nonetheless, we have strong preferences among them. Why? Because we're more willing to gamble when it comes to losses, but are risk averse when it comes to our gains. That's why we like small daily winnings in the stock market, even if that requires that we risk losing everything in a crash."

The most interesting point is whether options are under-priced.  We know about the smile and the way that this allows fat-tails.  Is that sufficient?  I supposed they checked.

The Future of Computer Based Trading

Tim Johnson has a blog Magic, maths and money: Here is is looking at a government report on computer based trading.  He makes the distinction between broking and jobbing or market-making and speculating.

 "Modern criticism of high frequency trading  is a continuation of a long tradition of distinguishing the activities of Monied Men investing in the market and Traders speculating within the market.  As such it can get entangled in a web of social judgements, such as it is OK for the rich to gamble but not the poor.  To make decisions about HFT, therefore, requires some understanding of this mess."

This is the same issue that arises time after time through Thomas Mortimer, Keynes and into the assessment of HFT.  The role of speculation in the market is a major issue.  One interesting point that Tim makes is that Big Bang blurred the line between broking and speculation.

Life In The Slow Lane

Paul Krugman shows how traffic congestion encourages road rage.  Life In The Slow Lane (Trivial) - NYTimes.com.  Probably a good exercise to conduct all these calculations:

1. What is total journey time? 
2. How much time spent flashing past others? 
3. How much time watching others flash past? 
4. Time saved with a 50 mph train.  

Data analysis

The FT has an interesting article today looking at
the work of James Cheshire on spatial analysis. The link to the FT article is here.  James's website is here.  He also blogs at mappinglondon.co.uk.  Some of the work appears to have been done with R. 

Hungary struggles with foreign currency loan burden

Hungarian foreign currency loans. FT.com:

"But the financial crisis sent the forint tumbling. The capital value and servicing costs of the loans mushroomed in forint terms; consumer spending slumped. At the end of March, Hungary still had over Ft3.55tn ($15.8bn) of foreign currency mortgages outstanding, equivalent to 12 per cent of gross domestic product. More than 20 per cent of the loans by value had repayments more than 90 days overdue."

This is the resolution of the HUF carry trade, conducted by domestic households:  borrowing EUR and CHF to purchase higher yielding domestic assets.

Measuring Recession

Jeffrey Frankel compares US and European methods of assessing recessions and comes down firmly on the side of the US version: not two quarters of negative growth but a more holistic assessment of the economy and its potential.

"These measurement issues may sound like minor technical details; but they can have significant real-world implications. So, what are the differences between European and US criteria for judging recessions?"

The US measurement removes the constant twitter about double or triple dips.

Bandwaggons and herding

The Economist assess why missing out on one job application is bad news for your chances in the next.

"The existence of bandwagon behaviour can be hard to prove. A product or an asset usually becomes popular (or unpopular) in the first place because it is genuinely superior (or inferior). But some have tried to isolate the self-fulfilling effects of popularity. One 2004 study* by Alan Sorensen, now of the University of Wisconsin, examined accidental omissions from the New York Times bestseller list"

As with the carry trade, there is some underlying effect but it is magnified by the attempt to deal with asymmetric information. This magnification causes a distortion that can eventually be significant.

Two decades ago Abhijit Banerjee, now at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, devised a model of “rational herding” in which market participants base their decision on a combination of their own information and the actions of others. Over successive rounds of transactions, participants responded less to their own information and more to the herd.

Expectations and learning

Learning from Inflation Experiences assess the way that expectations are formed and finds that personal experience has an impact.

: "How do individuals form expectations about future inflation? We propose that personal experiences play an important role. Individuals adapt their forecasts to new data but overweight inflation realized during their lifetimes."

There is scope here to use some of these ideas in understanding how expectations about the probability of success with the carry trade can affect the trade itself. What is the recent experience?  How have traders experienced the carry?

Frequency of words over time

The ngramr – an R package for Google Ngrams can create charts of the frequency with which words are used over time.  The package uses the Google Books diagnostics to scan Google Books to look for names.  The chart needs to be turned into data.

 "The Ngram Viewer will display an n-gram chart, but does not provide the underlying data for your own analysis. But all is not lost. The chart is produced using JavaScript and so the n-gram data is buried in the source of the web page in the code. It looks something like this:"

This can be used to see how economic words change over time and use this as a proxy for sentiment or thinking and then look for how this sentiment or general thinking affects things like the work of the central bank or the structural budge deficit, the PE ratio or more.

Budget iPhone: ugly on purpose | BGR

Analysis by BGR suggests that the Budget iPhone is ugly on purpose

"Pictures of candy-colored entry-level iPhones with rounded corners have started circulating. Many have branded them hideous, crude atrocities. They need to be. Apple is facing a unique dilemma: Because of the stellar success of the iOS app universe, the entry-level iPhone has to have nearly the same specs as the flagship iPhone. The display has to be large. The processing power has to be substantial. Apple cannot afford to fragment the iPhone device base, particularly since it has spent years mocking Android vendors mercilessly for doing just that. Still, the budget iPhones have to be something that affluent and aspirational consumers despise."

Is this price discrimination?  Some textbooks provide the example of French third class train carriages that, they say, used to have the roof taken off to make sure that they were inferior to the second class.

Global factors in capital flows and credit growth | vox

Consistent with the idea that loose monetary policy can be translated across borders and that the Japanese half-hearted attempt at quantitative easing was at least partially responsible for the global financial crisis by spreading Japanese money across the globe (through the carry trade).

"In a recent paper (Bruno and Shin 2012a) we examine the theoretical and empirical basis for global liquidity. Schematically, global liquidity propagates as shown in Figure 1. When global banks apply more lenient conditions on local banks in supplying wholesale funding, the local banks transmit the more lenient conditions to their borrowers through greater availability of local credit. In this way, global liquidity is transmitted through the interactions of global and local banks through the waxing and waning of bank risk-taking."

Valenina Bruno and Hyun Song Shin take a look in Global factors in capital flows and credit growth | vox.  Is there a link between the global carry trade and the transmission of liquidity.  Can the waxing and waning  of the carry identify increased global financial risk?

Unreliable friends and survival time

Mat Asher and the Unreliable Friend takes a look at survival functions.

"You can think of these curves as the chance that your friend will show up in the coming minutes, given how long you’ve already been waiting. At the very beginning of your wait, modeled by the orange curve at the far left, you can be almost certain that your friend will show up in the next 10 minutes. But by the time you’ve been waiting for 500 minutes, as seen in the blue curve at the far right, you are only 50% sure that she will show up in the next 500 minutes. Are those probabilities exact? It seems like it, but let’s zoom in on the first 25 minutes:"

My interest is whether this can be used to model time until financial crisis.  There would have to be two dimensions to the wait:  as the time expands, the intensity of the crash that ensues will be greater; as the time expands, the memory of the previous crash gets less well defined. The model has to be built up in this way with some sort of random exponential crash.  There are lots of small crashes and some major explosions.

Use of odds ratio with event studies

Jenny Hope talks about the use and mis-use of odds-ratio in medical science.  How can 2% become 20%? | Understanding Uncertainty:

"An odds ratio is a standard measure that statisticians and epidemiologists (yes, them again) use to measure an association between an exposure (here statins) and an event (muscle problems). It is defined as the odds of the event given the exposure, divided by the odds without the exposure."

Why not use this quantitative measure of the effect of an event as an addition to an event study.  The Event Study provides the picture of the effect of the event but the odds ratio should compare aftermath with and without the event.

Inequality

Chris Dillow has identified some data that shows the evolution of inequality across the income spectrum.  It comes from the ONS and  shows that there is a substantial increase in inequality between 1977 and 1993.  After that clear peak, it becomes a little more messy.  For the top decile relative to the lowest, the original income ratio fell to 25.69 from 30.53 between 2010-11 and 1993.  However, disposable income (after tax and benefit adjustments) rose to 9.95 from 9.23.  For the 6th decile (the middle) the same figures were 10.77 and 7.96 for original income and 3.25 and 3.86 for disposable income.

Cross Discipline

"The Great Inflation of the 2010s: Hoisted from Niall Ferguson's Archives from Two Years Ago" 

Link

A reminder of the limits of disciplines. There are probably numerous inflationary cases that appeared through history.  What of the cases where budget deficits increased but there was no inflation?  It is clear that economists ignored economic history but this appears to be a case of a historian without economic knowledge.

John Maynard Keynes, The end of laissez-faire (1926)

Worthwhile for having the whole paper.

John Maynard Keynes, The end of laissez-faire (1926): "The maxim laissez-nous faire is traditionally attributed to the merchant Legendre addressing Colbert some time towards the end of the seventeenth century.

('Que faut-il faire pour vous aider?' asked Colbert. 'Nous laisser faire' answered Legendre)."

Productivity and potential market

Dan Liu and Christopher Meissner Market Potential and the Rise of US Productivity Leadership:

 "The US advantage in per capita output, apparent from the late 19th century, is frequently attributed to its relatively large domestic market. We construct market potential measures for the US and 26 other countries between 1880 and 1913 based on a general equilibrium model of production and trade. When compared to other leading economies in 1900, the year around which the US overtakes Britain in productivity leadership, the US does not have the overwhelming lead in market potential that it has in GDP per capita. Still, market potential is positively related to the cross-country distribution of income per capita, but the impact of market potential is likely to be very heterogeneous. We illustrate this in a quantitative calculation of the welfare gains from removing international borders in 1900 within a parsimonious general equilibrium trade model. While there are gains from trade for all nations, the largest European countries do not close their per capita income gaps with the US after this hypothetical rise in market potential. On the other hand, many small countries could have done so."

'via Blog this'

Fake it!

Amy Cuddy: Your body language shapes who you are 

TED : http://on.ted.com/q1MN

Peak Oil

Brad DeLong : Liveblogging World War II: February 3, 1943:

A caveat to the predictions of economic collapse as a consequence of 'peak oil'.

"It needs to be said, of course, that the dire predictions of Hitler and his economic advisers in 1941 and 1942 about the certain collapse of the German war machine if no new sources of oil were obtained proved to be exaggerated. The German war effort did not grind to a halt when the campaign to capture the Caucasus oilfields failed. Although Germany's oil situation remained acute, and became desperate after the Allied air offensive against its synthetic fuel plants and the Rumanian oilfields began, the Reich continued fighting until May 1945."

There are alternatives.  They may not be sustainable themselves, but..
'via Blog this'

The Allais Paradox

The Allais Paradox | Wired Science | Wired.com:

There is some explanation of the Allais Paradox here in Wired.com.  The is a tendency to value certainty but once this is gone, there is a tendency to take risk. For speculation, this means that the positive skew to returns are very attractive but the negative skew does not have very much influence.

"But why was certainty so attractive? Kahneman and Tversky wanted to understand the psychology behind the paradox. Their breakthrough came by accident. Kahneman had been reading a textbook on economic utility functions, and was puzzled by the way economists explained a particular aspect of our behavior. When evaluating a gamble—like betting on a hand of poker, or investing in a specific stock—economists assumed that we made the decision by taking into account our wealth as a whole. (Being rational requires factoring in all the relevant information.) But Kahneman realized that this isn’t how we think. Gamblers in Las Vegas don’t sit around the card table contemplating their complete financial portfolio. Instead, they make quick decisions that depend entirely upon the immediate terms of the gamble. If there is a $100 wager, and you’re trying to decide whether or not to ante in with a pair of aces, you probably aren’t thinking about the recent performance of your mutual fund, or the value of your home."

This may mean that fat tails are attractive as the possibility of large gains draws attention while the possibility of large losses is given less weight than it should.  There is loss aversion.  If there are large potential losses, losses should be cut swiftly, but there is a tendency to hand on a hope - with potentially catastrophic results.

A guide to bootstrapping

Bootstrapping and Subsampling: Part I « Normal Deviate:

'via Blog this'

Compartments and belief

The Mind’s Compartments Create Conflicting Beliefs: Scientific American: An overview of the idea that the mind contains compartments that may contain conflicting ideas.  The key thought that when there is conflict, there is more agitation and people are more likely to shout or try to assert their belief.

"Cognitive dissonance may also be at work in the compartmentalization of beliefs. In the 2010 article “When in Doubt, Shout!” in Psychological Science, Northwestern University researchers David Gal and Derek Rucker found that when subjects' closely held beliefs were shaken, they “engaged in more advocacy of their beliefs ... than did people whose confidence was not undermined.” Further, they concluded that enthusiastic evangelists of a belief may in fact be “boiling over with doubt,” and thus their persistent proselytizing may be a signal that the belief warrants skepticism."

'via Blog this'

Rajiv Sethi: Risk and Reward in High Frequency Trading

Rajiv Sethi: Risk and Reward in High Frequency Trading: "These are interesting findings, but there is a serious problem with this interpretation of risk-adjusted performance. The authors are observing only a partial portfolio for each firm, and cannot therefore determine the firm's overall risk exposure. It is extremely likely that these firms are trading simultaneously in many markets, in which case their exposure to risk in one market may be amplified or offset by their exposures elsewhere. The Sharpe ratio is meaningful only when applied to a firm's entire portfolio, not to any of its individual components. For instance, it is possible to construct a low risk portfolio with a high Sharpe ratio that is composed of several high risk components, each of which has a low Sharpe ratio."

'via Blog this'

Knight, Risk, Uncertainty, and Profit, Part III, Chapter X | Library of Economics and Liberty

Knight, Risk, Uncertainty, and Profit, Part III, Chapter X   Profit is the return for having belief in the ability to forecast the future.  Of course this is self-fulfilling if luck ensures success and increased profits increase confidence.

 "The receipt of profit in a particular case may be argued to be the result of superior judgment. But it is judgment of judgment, especially one's own judgment, and in an individual case there is no way of telling good judgment from good luck, and a succession of cases sufficient to evaluate the judgment or determine its probable value transforms the profit into a wage."

However, the build up of confidence, profits and positions that are based on luck rather than ability to forececast the future could increase risk, particularly if risk is identified as a risk of reversal or crash.

The New Physiocrats - NYTimes.com

The New Physiocrats - NYTimes.com: "What’s really going on here, as far as I can tell, is a modern version of the 18th century physiocratic notion that only agriculture is real, that everything else is fluff on top. And we really shouldn’t be seeing a rebirth of that sort of nonsense in the 21st century. If you believe that we should have fewer schoolteachers and firefighters — or that education should be privatized — make that case. Don’t try to hide your prejudices under a mystical doctrine in which important, productive jobs somehow don’t count if they come from a place with a .gov email address."

We could also point to the idea that manufacturing is all powerful and useful while services are to be avoided.
'via Blog this'

Another side of the credit crunch

Gillian Tett assesses the fall in credit card debt and use of plastic. It should not be a great surprise given the increase in the savings rate.

"Yes, you read that right. Although Americans are (in)famous for their addiction to credit card debt, that love affair is cooling, or being forcibly cooled. By the middle of this year, the number of credit card accounts in circulation had tumbled to 383m, 23 per cent below its 2008 peak, and fresh applications for credit were declining too. Put another way, while cards are still being flogged to consumers (and even sometimes marketed, via direct mail, to pets), not all Americans are saying “yes”."

Another way to look at this is from the supply side.  As part of the 'credit crunch' and cut back in advances to risky credits.

Skin in the game - indeed

Finance is in need of a technological revolution - FT.com: "Less than two months before the Facebook fiasco, another IPO suffered an even more shocking fate. BATS Global Markets, which operates the third-largest stock exchange in the US, went public on its own exchange. If ever an organisation had sufficient “skin in the game” to get it right, it was BATS and if ever there was a time when getting it right really mattered, it was on the day of BATS’s own IPO. So when BATS debuted at an opening price of $15.25, no one expected it to plunge to less than a tenth of a penny in a second and a half due to a software error affecting stocks whose ticker symbols began with the letter A or B. The ensuing confusion was so great that BATS suspended trading in its own stock and ultimately cancelled its IPO."

BBC News - Olympic counties: Does it matter where medal-winners come from?

Wiggins Belgium and the South African cricketer

Andy Murray's gold postbox is in Dunblane, where the tennis gold medallist grew up - although he was, in fact, born in Glasgow, moved to Barcelona to train at 15 and now lives near Wimbledon in south-west London."

Rajiv Sethi: Belief Heterogeneity

Rajiv Sethi: Belief Heterogeneity the paper described here analyses competing views.  This can be used in the model of speculation and the carry trade in particular.  The simple carry trade is successful for some time and the more successful it is, the more traders are drawn to the trade, increasing its success.  It requires a shock to burst the bubble.

"Not surprisingly, then, the presentation I found most appealing was that of Blake LeBaron. Blake is a pioneer in the development of agent-based computational models of financial markets, and the paper he presented belonged to this class. A large number of different forecasting strategies, some based on fundamental information and others on technical data analysis, compete with each other and with a traditional buy-and-hold strategy in his model. The resulting trading dynamics give rise to asset price returns that exhibit both moderate levels of short-run momentum as well as mean reversion over longer horizons. Moreover, the long run population of forecasting rules is ecologically diverse, with both passive and active strategies well represented. "

'via Blog this'

Crowds and networds

Tim Harford highlights the work of Mark Granovetter on networks and crowds.

: "Consider the following simple model of a potential riot, based on an idea published in 1978 by the sociologist Mark Granovetter. There are 1,000 people in a crowd of protesters, and all of them have some underlying tendency to embark on a looting spree. We might reckon that an outbreak of rioting might be triggered by insensitive policing, or by the poverty of the crowd, or the opportunities for theft or for violent protest. But for simplicity let’s assume that the only thing everyone in the crowd cares about is what everyone else in the crowd is doing. Some people will start looting without much company. Others will hang back until the riot is well under way."

This can also be used, I think, to look at the way that speculation can build.  Given the information cascade that builds when valuation is difficult and that activity of others can imply some understanding that may not exist.  

Finance must escape the shadows - FT.com

Excellent.

John Kay - The parable of the ox

Interesting - though I am not sure that the Chicago model (Black-Scholes?) manages to generate a price from thin air - it needs important elements (such as the current price and the estimate of volatility).  It is also important to remember that there are people like Buffett making guesses and if the crowd is very wrong, he will be the closest.  John Kay - The parable of the ox:

"One difficulty was that sometimes there were few, or even no, guesses of the oxen’s weight. But that problem was soon overcome. Mathematicians from the University of Chicago developed models from which it was possible to estimate what, if there had actually been many guesses as to the weight of the animal, the average of these guesses would have been. No knowledge of animal husbandry was required, only a powerful computer."

Interesting, non-the-less. '

How Do You Choke Away the British Open? The Science of the Tight Collar | Wired Science | Wired.com

The explanation for why English Premier League players can be good for their club and poor for their country (outside ability of the rest of the team).

Sport psychology: "“You can’t dictate your genes,” says Stone. “But among the many identities you have, you can choose which to operate from.” Tiger Woods, for instance, has clearly forged an identity that transcends the potential vulnerabilities of his multiracial makeup. You can wallow in your most negative identity — the slow one, the overthinker, the one who doesn’t care — or you can foreground another identity, the one who is ready, the one who knows what’s coming, the one who calmly attacks the problem."

With a solution

The shocking story of how a council pursued Peter Williams

It raises the question of how different are the private and public institutions.

The shocking story of how a council pursued Peter Williams | Liberal Conspiracy: "On the 8th of February a man took his own life. Peter Williams was a gifted engineer, whose invention, still manufactured today, landed him in the Guinness World Records, but he was driven to bankruptcy and suicide by an unthinking and inhumane bureaucratic system"

Models

Krugman explains that models are tools or simplifications that are used to solve a problem.  However, the assumptions of the model cannot be used to explain the implications of the model.  That would be circular.  Gadgets Versus Fundamentals (Wonkish) - NYTimes.com:

"The point is that all this work USES Dixit-Stiglitz, but it’s not ABOUT Dixit-Stiglitz; D-S is a gadget, a tool that helps you work with the fundamental issues, but you don’t ever want to forget that it is no more than that."

George Monbiot – False Summit

George Monbiot – False Summit: "We were wrong about peak oil: there’s enough in the ground to deep-fry the plane"

It is always dangerous to make forecasts.  There is always some unsuspecting element that can crop up.

and then!

Monbiot peak oil u-turn based on bad science, worse maths

http://www.davidstrahan.com/blog/?p=1576

Oil glut forecaster Maugeri admits duff maths
http://www.davidstrahan.com/blog/?p=1570

David Strahan

Energy writer

Easter Island - people or rats?

Easter Island 

"Jared Diamond drew heavily on Flenley’s work for his assertion in Collapse, his influential 2005 book, that ancient Easter Islanders committed unintentional ecocide."
When the wood was gone and civil war began, the islanders began toppling the moai. By the 19th century none were standing. Easter Island’s landscape acquired the aura of tragedy that, in the eyes of Diamond and many others, it retains today.

'via Blog this'

Andrew Gelman on political statistics

Andrew Gelman on How Americans Vote | FiveBooks | The Browser: "The idea is that these people know enough about us so that they can manipulate our vote. Realistically, political consultants nowadays know a lot about us, and they do try to convince us. There are two kinds of people they follow. One is people where they know who they’re going to vote for, but they’re not sure that they’re going to vote. The other is people who are very likely to vote, but you don’t know which way they’re going to vote. The first type of person they try to mobilise just to turn out and vote, and the second kind of person they try to persuade. They’re pretty good at knowing who people are. In fact, at this point, a lot of this is just a question of resources. To the extent they have resources they will go out to people and call you on the phone. If they think you’re already likely to vote for a certain candidate, they’ll try to find somebody to knock on your door and convince you that it’s an important election and it’s worth voting for. In some sense it’s not as mysterious or conspiratorial as it’s made out to be in that book."

'via Blog this'

Greece’s ailing economy grinds to a halt - FT.com

The FT.com looks at the effect that a lack of credit is having on the Greek economy.

"But after thinking it over, Yannis Stamos, the company’s co-founder, turned the customer away. Filling the order would have meant reaching into Medical Service’s own pockets to cover the €35,000 cost of such a machine, since Greek banks have stopped lending and the company’s German suppliers now demand pre-payment in cash."

Bond market liquidity

FT.com: discusses the lack of liquidity in the corporate bond market.  A combination of risk-aversion, Volcker rule and capital costs seem to have combined to encourage banks to hold less inventory.  

 "Data from the Federal Reserve on Thursday showed corporate bond holdings among the largest dealers fell last week to $45bn. These inventories reached highs of more than $200bn in 2007 before falling to $90bn a year ago.
Asset managers are concerned that reduced liquidity will make it harder to move in and out of large positions, particularly at times of market stress.
“The buyside is looking for an answer on how to fix this,” said one of the dealer participants."'

Declining liquidity makes the market more of one where deals are worked over time and ultimately increases the cost of borrowing as final investors know that there is limited possibility of a swift sale.

Social network vs critics

The Guardian: reports on a Harvard business school study that compares Amazon book reviews to critics and finds that evaluation is similar, though the reviews are swift to find new authors.

 "Amazon reviewers were more likely to give a favourable review to a debut author, which the Harvard academics said suggested that "one drawback of expert reviews is that they may be slower to learn about new and unknown books".
Professional critics were more positive about prizewinning authors, and "more favourable to authors who have garnered other attention in the press (as measured by number of media mentions outside of the review)"."

'via Blog this'

Collateral and rating

A good overview of the effect of rating downgrade and increased risk aversion on the profitability of investment banks and, inevitably, the liquidity of financial markets.

M Stanley reassesses downgrade impact - FT.com: "The additional collateral needed could reduce Morgan Stanley’s fixed income derivatives revenues by almost a third, analysts at AllianceBernstein estimated in a recent note. In addition to having to stump up extra collateral to its trading partners, Morgan Stanley could also face a higher cost of funding, the analysts said."

This also gives some indication of the importance of the economies of scale in investment banking.

International holding of bonds and capital

International holding of government bonds.

Bank adequacy: weight and see - FT.com: "But what would be the effect of removing the zero weighting on banks’ domestic sovereign debt holdings? In its latest stability report, the IMF takes a stab at estimating the “correct” risk weightings to use, via default rates embedded in sovereign credit default swap spreads. Doing this lowers the average capital adequacy ratios across banks in emerging countries by 2-3 percentage points – no small sum. Ratios for European banks fall by less, between 0.5-2 percentage points. The reduction for US lenders is smaller still. Even so, more capital would be needed."

'via Blog this'

Funds move directly into loan market

If funds cannot If funds cannot get access to loans via structured products, can they go into the market themselves by making loans?  M&G are in £266m property financing deal - FT.com  

"It is the second time this week a UK insurer has provided debt finance for a property deal, with Legal & General issuing its maiden property loan on Tuesday.

The relationship between the two sectors is deepening rapidly as insurers snap up opportunities created by the shortage of bank lending."

'via Blog this'

German banks rein in exposure to Spain - FT.com

German banks rein in exposure to Spain - FT.com: "Will Spain – where house prices have fallen more than 22 per cent from their peak, with analysts expecting worse to come – bring more pain? Figures published this month by the Bank for International Settlements show that German banks had $146bn of exposure to Spain at the end of 2011 – more than the banks of any other country. Some $53bn of the exposure is to Spanish banks, while a further $68bn is to the rest of the private sector"

End-December 2011
           Denmark France     Germany     Greece     Ireland      Italy       Japan       Mexico
Spain   1,951      115,162   146,096        292       4,696       26,939    21,691       540 ...

http://www.bis.org/statistics/r_qa1206_anx9b.pdf

FX Momentum trades

Forex momentum trade yields long-term gains - FT.com: "Currency momentum strategies that buy or sell currencies according to whether they have risen or fallen over the previous month yielded annual returns of nearly 10 per cent between 1976 and 2010, according to the Cass study, which analysed 48 currencies against the US dollar. The paper, “Currency Momentum Strategies”, is due to be published in the Journal of Financial Economics."

'via Blog this'

Investment Bank Leverage

The FT reports on the rise in capital at investment bank Goldman.

Goldman Sachs: then and now - FT.com: "Spookily, it is as if nothing has changed for six long years. But a financial crisis has come and gone since then and regulators are now throwing everything at banks. Of course, there is one huge difference between the two periods, but it is not to be found in the profit and loss account. Flip to the balance sheet and be astounded to remember that in 2006 Goldman was running on just $27bn of common shareholders’ equity. With exactly the same earnings today, that number is now two and a half times higher."

Hedge funds and leverage

Hedge funds keep a lid on leverage - FT.com: "According to the UK’s Financial Services Authority, which in February published its annual survey of the global hedge fund industry, the average hedge fund currently uses leverage of about 2.5 times its capital – as it has done for the past three years.
Indeed, unlike prop desks, most hedge funds have to grapple with all too finite liquidity and financing – issues no manager has been able to ignore since 2008."

How the leverage has been reduced as pro trading transfers from investment banks to hedge funds.

The BBK seeks insurance against EMU break-up

The Bundesbank has no right at all to be baffled - FT.com:

"It also tells us something else: by seeking insurance against a collapse of the euro, the Bundesbank tells us it no longer regards the demise of the euro as a zero-probability event. If the Bundesbank seeks insurance, so should everybody else."

'via Blog this'

Are Credit Ratings Massively Overrated? | Economics Intelligence

The informational content of credit rating agencies seems to be minimal - worse than a simple indicator that can be constructed.

Are Credit Ratings Massively Overrated? | Economics Intelligence:

"Hilscher and Wilson reply that they do not claim that ratings have no informational content whatsoever. Having a S&P rating was certainly better than no information at all, stresses Hilscher"

'via Blog this'

Do hedge funds offer value for their fees? No - FT.com

Not surprising if the absolute returns are from finding inefficiencies. Given an absolute amount of inefficiencies, these are shared over more funds.

Do hedge funds offer value for their fees? No - FT.com:

"Just as individual hedge funds tend to do better when they are small, so too, his analysis shows, the industry as a whole performed better when it was a largely unknown $200bn business, rather than the high profile $1.9tn industry it had grown to become, before the financial crisis in 2008 so dramatically exposed some of its shortcomings. The comforting compounded rates of return reported in hedge fund indices give a misleading impression of the actual cash returns achieved by hedge fund investors. Most of the client money that has flowed in since the industry began to be institutionalised has not achieved anything like the returns the long-term headline index figures suggest.
"

'via Blog this'

Delete rows from R data frame « Heuristic Andrew

Use for getting rid of rows of data where there is no response. For instance, the missing values in a large dataframe can be removed in this way with simplicity.

Delete rows from R data frame « Heuristic Andrew:

'via Blog this'

Friedman and Krugman

New Frontiers in Economic Barbarism - NYTimes.com: "Quite. What Matt may not know, however, is that this is a classic argument in international macro, and the person who made it best was …. drumroll … Milton Friedman. Here’s a snip from Friedman’s 1953 essay “The case for flexible exchange rates”:


Is it really possible that people at the University of Chicago have unlearned not only Keynes but Friedman? Alas, yes."

'via Blog this'

Cross Validation

A number of related ideas about the cross validation of models:

Arlot paper on cross validation

Rob Hyndman

R code for comparison

Why Only Germany Can Fix the Euro | Foreign Affairs

At the heart of the Euro area crisis.

Why Only Germany Can Fix the Euro | Foreign Affairs:

" According to Eurostat, Germany's trade surplus with the rest of the EU grew from 46.4 billion euro in 2000 to 126.5 billion in 2007. The evolution of Germany's bilateral trade surpluses with the Mediterranean countries is especially revealing. Between 2000 and 2007, Greece's annual trade deficit with Germany grew from 3 billion euro to 5.5 billion, Italy's doubled, from 9.6 billion to 19.6 billion, Spain's almost tripled, from 11 billion to 27.2 billion, and Portugal's quadrupled, from 1 billion to 4.2 billion. Between 2001 and 2009, moreover, Germany saw its final total consumption fall from 78.5 percent of GDP to 74.5 percent. Its gross savings rate increased from less than 19 percent of GDP to almost 26 percent over the same period."

'via Blog this'

Unintended consequences

The unintended consequences of trying to reduce the Greek debt burden while preventing the triggering of CDS has the unintended consequence of making all bond positions look vulnerable (even when there was a previous CDS protection. The FT quotes Commerzbank chief a:

"Mr Blessing criticised the Greek agreement since investors that insured Greek bonds using CDS had not received a pay-out because the voluntary agreement was not deemed to be a so-called “credit event” and thus did not trigger CDS payments."

This can lead to other bond holders selling the bonds because they find that they are not protected from default.

'via Blog this'

Michael Lewis on Prospect Theory

Prospect Theory and MoneyBall

"The moment the psychologists uncover some new kink in the human mind, they bestow a strange and forbidding name on it (“the availability heuristic”). In their most cited paper, cryptically titled “Prospect Theory,” they convinced a lot of people that human beings are best understood as being risk-averse when making a decision that offers hope of a gain but risk-seeking when making a decision that will lead to a certain loss. In a stroke they provided a framework to understand all sorts of human behavior that economists, athletic coaches, and other “experts” have trouble explaining: why people who play the lottery also buy insurance; why people are less likely to sell their houses and their stock portfolios in falling markets; why, most sensationally, professional golfers become better putters when they’re trying to save par (avoid losing a stroke) than when they’re trying to make a birdie (and gain a stroke)"

'via Blog this'

Unintended consequences

Unintended consequences: "In the UK, the “Merton Rule” – it originated in the Borough of Merton and has been widely emulated – demands that substantial new developments include the capacity to generate 10 per cent of the building’s energy needs through renewable sources, on site.

Alas, such a rule is hopelessly slack for an out-of-town supermarket – an environmental disaster because of all the driving it encourages, yet with plenty of real estate for solar panels. Meanwhile it is too challenging for a city-centre skyscraper, which is naturally a low-energy building because of its compactness and proximity to public transport."

'via Blog this'

The evolution of overconfidence

A paper in Nature makes the case for the positive aspect of over-confidence: it encourages action and decisive response; it is generally successful or adaptive; when it goes wrong, it goes very wrong.

The evolution of overconfidence : Nature : Nature Publishing Group:

This would be consistent with the behaviour that is mirrored in financial markets. The carry trade is such a confident trait. There is the belief that the exit can be achieved before the shock. This is generally successful, certainly more successful than the alternative strategy that would hold back and worry about the risk of a funding currency appreciation. Those who embark on the strategy make years of gains. Those who stay on the sidelines, lose out. When the hit happens, it is a shock that is explained away by specific circumstances. The over-confident are not blamed and the cautious and not proved 'right' in most cases.

The price of protection - FT.com

The price of protection - FT.com: "However, most banks expect the biggest impact to be felt by corporate customers, particularly mid-sized companies that rely heavily on bank debt. Analysts believe these businesses will sit outside the ringfence, alongside the investment bank activities – the part most at risk of a sharp rise in wholesale funding costs. Creditors generally give higher ratings to banks with retail and investment banking under one roof as they believe they are more stable. Remove that benefit and ratings are likely to fall, making it harder and more expensive to access funds."

'via Blog this'

The Social Responsibility of Business is to Increase its Profits, by Milton Friedman

The Social Responsibility of Business is to Increase its Profits, by Milton Friedman: "The New York Times Magazine, September 13, 1970. Copyright @ 1970 by The New York Times Company.

When I hear businessmen speak eloquently about the "social responsibilities of business in a free-enterprise system," I am reminded of the wonderful line about the Frenchman who discovered at the age of 70 that he had been speaking prose all his life. The businessmen believe that they are defending free en­terprise when they declaim that business is not concerned "merely" with profit but also with promoting desirable "social" ends; that business has a "social conscience" and takes seriously its responsibilities for providing em­ployment, eliminating discrimination, avoid­ing pollution and whatever else may be the catchwords of the contemporary crop of re­formers. In fact they are–or would be if they or anyone else took them seriously–preach­ing pure and unadulterated socialism. Busi­nessmen who talk this way are unwitting pup­pets of the intellectual forces that have been undermining the basis of a free society these past decades."

'via Blog this'

Technology Can't Save Us From Math Mishaps - WSJ.com

Nice

Technology Can't Save Us From Math Mishaps - WSJ.com: Mr. Clarke, the economist, suggests that we go easy on statisticians. "Everyone makes spreadsheet mistakes," he says. He repeats advice he received from his best man at his wedding: "The best way to remember your wedding anniversary is to forget it once."

Profits from ETF

FT.com: "Why are ETFs so profitable when they appear to be so cheap? Annual management fees have been driven down by price wars, which have been particularly fierce in the US. Synthetic ETFs obviously offer scope for profitable derivative trading and collateral management, but the opportunity to extract revenue is less obvious with physical ETFs, being mainly confined to securities lending. Perhaps running an ETF business is at least in part a means of running a securities lending operation, in which case providers should reveal what proportion of stocks in a portfolio are lent, as the associated counterparty risks are material to investors."

2011 World’s Most Ethical Companies | Ethisphere™ Institute

Useful for the selection of 'ethical companies'.

2011 World’s Most Ethical Companies | Ethisphere™ Institute: "The World’s Most Ethical Companies designation recognizes companies that truly go beyond making statements about doing business “ethically” and translate those words into action. WME honorees demonstrate real and sustained ethical leadership within their industries, putting into real business practice the Institute’s credo of “Good. Smart. Business. Profit.”"

Bond market liquidity

The reduction in bond market liquidity due to the decline in bank risk appetite and increased capital requirement.

Lack of liquidity bad for big bond funds - FT.com: "In 2007 bond fund managers were able to trade bonds at bid/offer spreads of 0.25 per cent. That widened to 2-3 per cent at the height of the crisis from September 2008 to March 2009. Trading spreads subsequently fell back to 0.4-0.5 per cent but have since crept up again to about 1 per cent on fears of the European sovereign debt crisis. Mr Davidson says: “It’s clear the banks don’t want any credit instruments on their books, especially given everything that’s going on in peripheral Europe.”

As a result, he adds, anyone managing a bond fund with assets of £1bn ($1.6bn) or more – with individual holdings of £10m plus – has their hands pretty much tied, “unless they resort to the euro market for greater cash liquidity or the CDS [credit default swap] market for greater active liquidity – but they’d be giving away yield in both cases. It is taking people a long time to trade out of an accumulated position of over £100m in a single, not very liquid bond.”"

Pension fund exposure

Two interesting aspects of this FT report: The decline in equity share and the increase in alternative assets.

Reductions in equity exposure to continue - FT.com: "UK pension funds have been gradually reducing their allocation to equities in the past decade from 74 per cent in 2000 to 55 per cent in 2010, according to Towers Watson. The equity exposure of UK funds remains the highest of all the large markets; compared with 49 per cent in the US, 37 per cent in Japan, 33 per cent in the Netherlands and 28 per cent in Switzerland. But a decline in equity allocations is common, with the net overall allocation across the largest pension fund

markets down by 13 per cent in the past five years, as pension funds diversify into alternative asset classes, which now account for 19 per cent of all portfolios."

Smell like team spirit

When it comes to taking most of the profits, the top investment banks do not compare with football clubs. The money flows to the talent.

Sports franchises: smell like team spirit - FT.com:

"Ditto Stateside. The headline grabbing $400m Platinum Equity supposedly paid for the Detroit Pistons this month is equivalent in size to Stein Mart, 468th in the S&P 600 small cap index. (And the retailer makes 10 times the revenues.) Sports profitability is worse. Why? Wages. Incredibly, the market cap of Juventus FC is only 30 times the annual salary of its best paid player. Goldman Sachs’s market cap is 5,000 times its boss’s last pay packet."

Pencil full of lead

BBC - Scotland - Sunday at RockNess 2011

Beware the tottering Greek domino

Good overview of market sentiment and its measurement.

FT.com / Markets - Beware the tottering Greek domino

FT video.

How I Failed, Failed, and Finally Succeeded at Learning How to Code - James Somers - Technology - The Atlantic

How I Failed, Failed, and Finally Succeeded at Learning How to Code - James Somers - Technology - The Atlantic

‘National mania’ blamed for Irish crisis

The FT.com on the report about Irish banks. The national speculation seems to be a feature of all such financial crises. It is obvious in retrospect. At the time, everyone is part of it and after none will take responsibility.

"Mr Nyberg said the attendant risks went undetected or were seriously misjudged by regulatory authorities “whose actions and warnings were modest and insufficient”.

A “happy go lucky” attitude prevailed during the period, including among the bondholders that lent to Irish banks.

“When it all ended, suddenly and inexplicably, participants had difficulty accepting their appropriate share of the blame for something in which so many others were also involved and that seemed reasonable at the time,” the report states"

Economist's View: Empirical and Historical Validation of Macroeconomic Models

Economist's View looks at the failure of the Bernanke type economic accelerator model to explain much of the deviation in output. However, this is rather the same as the failure of the short period of housing data to show the possibility of a simultaneous fall in house prices across the country.

"That was a mistake, but what is the lesson? One is that we should not necessarily ignore something just because it cannot be found in the data. Much of the empirical work prior to the crisis involved data from the early 1980s to the present (due to an assumption of structural change around that time), sometimes the data goes back to 1959 (when standard series on money end), and occasionally empirical work will use data starting in 1947. So important, infrequent events like the great Depression are rarely even in the data we use to test our models. Things that help to explain this episode may not seem important in limited data sets, but we ignore these possibilities at our own peril."

Spanish rates and the ECB

FT.com / "Almost all Spanish mortgages are based on the one-year Euribor money market rate, which is now close to 2 per cent, and rising"

What will people do for money?

What will people do for money?: "In the hypothetical scenario, 64 percent of participants said they would never administer a shock to someone else for money. However, in the real world that number changed, and in a big way. When faced with real money, 96 percent chose to shock the person in the other room for money."

Fixed income hedge funds

The FT looks at fixed income and some of the key players and strategies in the market:

"The resources and infrastructure required means that yield curve hedge funds tend to exist inside banks and the largest asset management firms. In Europe, well-known credit exponents include Trafalgar Asset Managers and BlueBay Asset Management, while yield curve funds include Brevan Howard, Moore Capital, Comac Capital and Prologue Capital."

ESM and seniority

FT.com / Capital Markets - Eurozone bonds face boycott by investors: "Standard & Poor’s, the US credit ratings agency, warned earlier this month that any country borrowing from the ESM could face further ratings downgrades because of the seniority issue."

Global credit gaUge

The FT.com reports on international measures to increase required capital ratios if credit growth breaches a threashold.

"The agreement drew strong support from around the world despite predictions that regulators would be unable to come up with a common definition for bubbles. The deal uses the ratio of credit-to-GDP as its basic measure. But regulators can use other metrics, provided they make their reasoning public"

Merrill and the CDOs

How Merrill Lynch Traders Helped Blow Up Their Own Firm - ProPublica: "By the middle of 2006, the Merrill traders who bought mortgage securities were often clashing with the powerful division, run by Harin De Silva and Ken Margolis, which created and sold the CDOs. At least three traders began to refuse to buy CDO pieces created by De Silva and Margolis' division, according to several former Merrill employees. (De Silva and Margolis didn't respond to requests for comment.)"

John Maynard Keynes - A great investor

John Maynard Keynes - A great investor:

"John Maynard Keynes started off as a currency trader, moving to commodities a bit later on. He attempted to invest based on macroeconomic predictions—keep in mind that he was an economist—and it didn't exactly work out in the short run. I didn't quote the rest of the article but Keynes appears to have broke even later on but this was definitely a painful start."

Transaction banking

The FT looks at transaction banking:

"Few universal banks split out their transaction banking performance. But Deutsche Bank, for example, recorded transaction banking pre-tax profits of €1.1bn in 2008, up 17 per cent and equivalent to an ROE of 108 per cent. Though the number slipped back – to €776m – in 2009, that relatively stable performance contrasts with the investment banking result, which was €7.4bn in the red in 2008, thanks to the toxic asset fall-out from the financial crisis, and then €4.3bn in the black again last year."

UK Irish exposure

Ireland: a danger zone for banks:

"Settlements estimates that UK lenders account for almost 30 per cent of European banks’ total $509bn exposure to Ireland. RBS and Lloyds, both partially state-owned, have taken the most Irish pain, falling by about 8 and 9 per cent respectively over the past week before regaining some ground on Tuesday"

Negative basis in Ireland

FT Alphaville looks at the movement of Irish bonds vs CDS. In this case the bond market is leading the CDS as selling of bonds (to raise, or prevent the need to post, collateral at LCH) has been the main factor behind the move. Usually, it is the more liquid CDS that makes the move.

"Ireland joined Greece this week in the negative basis club. That is, the five-year asset swap spread for Ireland outpaced movement in equivalent credit default swaps. So (in basic terms) spreads in the CDS market were trading lower than in the cash market for Ireland."

German banks and Basel 2

FT.com "It is also a somewhat disturbing paradox that such a successful manufacturing economy remains reliant on such a fragile banking sector. Indeed, of the 44 European banks that have had recourse to state support in the latest crisis, by far the biggest number have been based in Germany, with 13 banks, followed by the UK and Belgium with five cases each"