Monday, July 21, 2014

Learning means that behaviour is not stationary

Stationary processes | The Leisure of the Theory Class:

"I said earlier that in stationarity environment, the point in time which we denote by does not correspond to anything about the process itself but only reflect the point in time in which we start observing the process. In this example this is indeed the case with Craig, who starts observing the coin process at time . It is not true for us. Our subject matter is not the coin, but Craig. And time has a special meaning for Craig. Bottom line: Rational agent in a stationary environment will typically not behave in a stationary way."

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Saturday, July 19, 2014


CONVERSABLE ECONOMIST: Evidence on the Samuelson Conjecture: "For a useful starting point to thinking about how the rise of emerging economies like China affect global trade, I recommend a symposium in the Spring 2012 issue of JEP. Gordon H. Hanson starts with "The Rise of Middle Kingdoms: Emerging Economies in Global Trade."  "Gains from Trade when Firms Matter," by Marc J. Melitz and Daniel Trefler, looks at the benefits of trade offers introduction to modern models of trade driven from variety, shifts toward more efficient firms, and technological gains. For an introduction to models of international trade based on by differences in relative productivity across countries--like the model used by di Giovanni, Levchenko, and Zhang--that same has a useful article called "Putting Ricardo to Work," by Jonathan Eaton and Samuel Kortum. Finally, Jonathan Haskel, Robert Z. Lawrence, Edward E.  Leamer, and Matthew J. Slaughter look at "Globalization and U.S. Wages: Modifying  Classic Theory to Explain Recent Facts." "

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Thursday, July 17, 2014

Money and Entropy — Design Matters — Medium

Money and Entropy — Design Matters — Medium: "This all sounds terribly wonkish and academic, but understanding money in a scientific sense is important given what you can do with it (and the problems a lack of it create)."

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Saturday, July 12, 2014

The real 10 algorithms that dominate our world — Medium

The real 10 algorithms that dominate our world — Medium: "The other day, while I was navigating Reddit I found an interesting post that was called The 10 Algorithms That Dominate Our World by the author George Dvorsky which was trying to explain the importance that algorithms have in our world today and which ones are the most important for our civilization."

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Friday, June 27, 2014

Pimco runs risks in turning up the ‘vol’ -

Pimco runs risks in turning up the ‘vol’

Nice overview from the F-Times of: risk to increase volatility specifically and the way that crowded trades can be build by conventions that become oversold.

"In fact, so many different kinds of investors are now “selling volatility” that BlackRock’s Dennis Stattman worried at the same conference that it had become a “crowded trade”. Sceptics worry these new players might be selling flood insurance on the cheap, just before a deluge."

Tuesday, June 24, 2014

Shadow Banking: In depth news, commentary and analysis in a series from the Financial Times

Shadow Banking: In depth news, commentary and analysis in a series from the Financial Times:

"Shadow banking covers a wide range of ‘non-bank’ institutions that perform many of the functions of traditional banks, including lending, but do so outside of deposit-taking banks. The FT examines this sector, which is reshaping how companies fund themselves"
The evolution of the financial system: the regulation and return of banks to traditional activities and the emergence of new institutions to fulfill the roles that have been abandoned.

Sunday, June 22, 2014

Frequentism and Bayesianism IV: How to be a Bayesian in Python

Frequentism and Bayesianism IV: How to be a Bayesian in Python: "I won't be so much concerned with speed benchmarks between the three, as much as a comparison of their respective APIs. This post is not meant to be a tutorial in any of the three; each of them is well documented and the links above include introductory tutorials for that purpose. Rather, what I want to do here is a side-by-side comparison which will give a feel for how each package is used. I'll propose a single relatively non-trivial test problem, and show the implementation and results of this problem using all three packages. Hopefully by seeing the three approaches side-by-side, you can choose which package might be best suited for your particular application."

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