Friday, February 25, 2005
Wednesday, February 23, 2005
Tuesday, February 22, 2005
I wonder if this can be applied to FX rates - taking a basket of options prices and bringing them together with some other sentiment indices (futures positions etc).
Friday, February 18, 2005
The relationship between economic growth and the returns to capital. Can these diverge sharply?
Sunday, February 13, 2005
"DEEP in the basement of a dusty university library in Edinburgh lies a small black box, roughly the size of two cigarette packets side by side, that churns out random numbers in an endless stream.
At first glance it is an unremarkable piece of equipment. Encased in metal, it contains at its heart a microchip no more complex than the ones found in modern pocket calculators. But, according to a growing band of top scientists, this box has quite extraordinary powers. It is, they claim, the 'eye' of a machine that appears capable of peering into the future and predicting major world events"
Very strange, slightly scary. I would be more comfortable if it just anticipated changing human emotion....
Saturday, February 12, 2005
One interesting thing here is whether the sharp increase in personal borrowing is associated with this fall in inflation expectation. The increased willingness to take on debt appears to be most evident in the likes of the US, the UK and Australia (where the fall in inflation expectations is probably much greater than in Germany for instance).
Tuesday, February 08, 2005
This is a lovely comment by Brad on the relation between earnings growth and GDP growth and how even a complete diversification will miss out on the returns to future entreprenurship.
Great summary of what we know and what we don't know - including links to authoritative papers.
Sunday, February 06, 2005
This is an interesting drive through the practicalities of competition and contestable markets.
Friday, February 04, 2005
Thursday, February 03, 2005
This is an IMF paper that may provide some insight into the pressure on Asian central banks to think about the value of the USD reserves that they hold. It seems to me that there is little pressure on central banks to think about the ruture value of the reserves. Other policy considerations (maintainance of favourable exchange rates) are more important.