Thursday, January 27, 2005

USD reserve diversification

Nouriel Roubini :

"Suppose that a number of small BW2 periphery countries diversify out of US dollars into yen and euros and that leads to a weaker $ relative to Euro and yen. Then, the BOJ may start intervening again and the ECB may start to intervene altogether to avoid excessive appreciation. Then, the BW2 periphery would free ride on the ECB and BOJ: they would be able to dump their undesired $ assets and acquite Euros and Yen provided by the BOJ and ECB intervention at no cost to these free riders as the $ cross rate relative to euro and yen would be unaffected if such intervention occurs and at not cost in terms of bilateral currency value relative to the US $ as someone is absorbing the undesired hot potato of dollar assets. This way ECB and BOJ get the hot potatos of $ assets that small countries do not want and give Euros and Yens to the free riders in exchange."



Also US and China "Balance of Financial Terror Prisoners' Dilemma Game.

Discussion of Chinese move to a basket peg.

Reuters Indifferent 2 year-note auction.

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