EMH

The JSSM- 2006, Vol.5, Issue 4, 480 - 487 points to research showing that there are inefficincies in the market for betting on cricket matches. Thanks to Paul Kedrosky for the pointer.:

"Using a multiple linear regression model, prediction variables were numerically weighted according to statistical significance and used to predict the match outcome. With the use of the Duckworth-Lewis method to determine resources remaining, at the end of each completed over, the predicted run total of the batting team could be updated to provide a more accurate prediction of the match outcome. By applying this prediction approach to a holdout sample of matches, the efficiency of the 'in the run' wagering market could be assessed. Preliminary results suggest that the market is prone to overreact to events occurring throughout the course of the match, thus creating brief inefficiencies in the wagering market."