Thursday, August 29, 2013

Knowledge, uncertainty and Bayesian priors

A fantastic journey from a discussion of job insecurity through the basis of knowledge and back to how to estimate the probability of being sacked.  Not Quite Noahpinion: Perceiving Job Insecurity:

"Keynes was one of many to critique this principle. His views on probability and uncertainty remain controversial, as does the Principle of Insufficient Reason. There is actually quite a large body of literature in statistics concerning "noninformative priors" that continues to study the fascinating and controversial issue of how to represent ignorance. There are also subfields of behavioral economics that study how people treat probability, particularly when it comes to low-probability events (like job loss, usually)."

Excellent links provided.

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