Sunday, March 23, 2014

Shadow rate

Summarizing monetary policy | Econbrowser and the use of the shadow rate.

 "A recent paper by Dora Xia, a UCSD graduate student who expects to complete her Ph.D. this spring, and Cynthia Wu, a former UCSD student who is now an assistant professor at the University of Chicago, makes several contributions to this literature. First, most previous applications of the shadow rate model have involved arduous numerical simulations to calculate its full predictions. By contrast, Wu and Xia develop a very simple closed-form expression that gives a very good approximation to the predictions of the model for the yield of any maturity. Here is a graph showing the estimate of the shadow rate that comes out of their approach. Up until 2009, this basically coincides with the observed fed funds rate, but since then, the implied shadow rate has been quite negative."

This can be used to assess whether monetary policy is appropriate and can be utilised to make forecasts about interest rates.  This could be a supplement to the Taylor Rule.

'via Blog this'

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