Predicting the World Cup...This paper suggests that it is true - the chances of me predicting who will win the world cup are the same as that of my wife identifying the victor. However, while she is clear that she is guessing, I can talk about the 'reasons' behind my 'prediction' for a long time.
Economists View points to a book by Philip E. Tetlock, How accurate are your pet pundits? investigating the accuracy of forecasts.
Imagine your job as a media executive depends on expanding your viewing audience. Whom would you pick: an expert who balances conflicting arguments and concludes that the likeliest outcome is more of the same, or an expert who gets viewers on the edge of their seats over radical Islamists seizing control and causing oil prices to soar? ...
More on Tetlock from John Kay here
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