Excellent article in the LA Times. Thanks to Paul Kedrosky for the pointer. The maths of luck in the film industry.
Meet Hollywood's Latest Genius - Los Angeles Times: "That's precisely how films behave in the marketplace. If we hear good things, we go and perhaps tell others; if we hear bad things, we stay away. It's that process—the way consumers learn from others about the expected quality of the product—that De Vany found is the key to the odd behavior of the film business today. Economists call it an 'information cascade.'"
The chaotic nature of the success of failure of a film means that the big starts and business leaders have runs of good luck and bad luck. The rest is an attempt to bring meaning to this statistical noise.
Clearly this could be taken further - dare I say it - even as far as the World Cup.
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