Monday, July 03, 2006

Real yields

The FT looks at the rise in real yields. Strong economic growth would certainly argue for higher real yields as a response to the demand for capital. However, this does not square with the recent sell off in emerging markets and commodities.

FT.com / Markets - The Short View: Real yields still have room to grow:
"But real yields have also been rising. According to Ian Scott of Lehman Brothers, a weighted average of real yields in the US, France and the UK hit a low of 1.3 per cent in June last year and has now risen to 2.1 per cent. That still leaves real yields well below their heights during the dotcom boom when, on Scott’s calculations, they almost touched 4 per cent. "


Most likely the emerging and commodity sell off is just a deflation of a bubble.

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